Malthus's Population Theory

T.R. Malthus was the first economist to propound the theory of population. He was a clergyman from England.

He systematically propounded the population theory in his book "An Essay on the Principle of Population," published in 1798. The theory propounded by him is known as "Malthus's Population Theory."

In Malthus's words: "By nature, human population increases in a slow arithmetical ratio, while it increases in a rapid geometrical ratio unless stopped by want and vice."

At the time of Malthus, the population was increasing excessively in Britain and the rest of Europe, while agricultural production was declining. This caused people to face complex problems such as famine and epidemics.

This worried Malthus, which led him to study and write about population. In this theory, he studied the relationship between population and food supply and concluded that the population growth rate is higher than the food supply growth rate.

Features of Malthusian Theory of Population

The main elements of Malthus's population theory are as follows:

(a) Population Growth Rate: According to Malthus, if there is no hindrance, the population of any country increases in a geometrical ratio, i.e., the population growth follows the sequence 1:2:4:8:16:32. If the population is not controlled, the population of any country doubles every 25 years.

(b) Food Supply Growth Rate: According to Malthus, the food supply growth rate is slower than the population growth rate. Since the law of diminishing returns applies to agriculture, the food supply increases in an arithmetical ratio, i.e., the food supply growth follows the sequence 1:2:3:4:5:6.

(c) Imbalance between Population and Food Supply: According to Malthus, the population increases at a higher rate than the food supply. If arrangements are not made to stop population growth, the population will increase along with the increase in the means of subsistence, and after a certain time, the population growth will exceed the means of subsistence. Due to this imbalance, people will face many crises, such as famine, epidemics, floods, landslides, etc.

(d) Population Control: Malthus presented a pessimistic view to the world regarding the difficulties arising from this imbalance, saying that it is extremely necessary to control the population.

According to him, population can be controlled in the following two ways:

1. Natural or Positive Checks: Population and food supply are balanced by natural checks. In this method, nature increases the death rate through famine, floods, earthquakes, cholera, plague, etc., to control the population. However, this method is extremely painful.
2. Artificial or Preventive Checks: Natural checks are extremely painful. Therefore, to survive them, people must adopt preventive checks to reduce the population. Preventive checks are those adopted by humans. The purpose of this check is to reduce the birth rate and thus reduce the population. As methods of preventive checks, Malthus advised delaying marriage, practicing celibacy, and living a temperate life. An important point here is that since Malthus was a clergyman and a religious person, he did not say anything about modern methods of family planning in relation to preventive checks.

According to Malthus, if population growth is not stopped by artificial checks, nature will adopt its harsh methods. Therefore, he argued that it is essential for people to adopt artificial checks to avoid the suffering of natural checks.

The Malthusian Trap

The Malthusian Trap is a concept derived from Thomas Robert Malthus’s Theory of Population, which explains how population growth tends to outpace food production, leading to cycles of poverty, famine, and stagnation in economic development.

Malthus, in his book An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), argued that:

1. Population grows exponentially (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…)

2. Food production grows arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…)

Since population increases faster than food supply, there will come a point where food becomes insufficient, leading to crises such as famine, disease, and war, which act as natural checks on population growth.

The Malthusian Trap (Catastrophe)

The Malthusian Trap occurs when:

• Any economic or technological progress leads to higher living standards, which causes higher birth rates and lower death rates.

• This rapid population growth then reduces per capita food availability and resources, eventually pushing people back into poverty and hunger.

• The cycle continues, preventing long-term improvements in living standards.

Example of the Malthusian Trap

In pre-industrial societies, agricultural advancements temporarily improved food supply, but soon, the growing population consumed the extra resources, keeping most people at subsistence-level living.

Criticism and Relevance in today's world

• The Industrial Revolution helped many countries escape the Malthusian Trap by improving technology, increasing agricultural productivity, and lowering birth rates.

• Modern economists argue that human innovation, education, and policy changes can break the cycle predicted by Malthus.

Despite this, concerns about overpopulation, resource depletion, and environmental degradation suggest that some aspects of the Malthusian Trap remain relevant, particularly in developing nations facing food scarcity and economic challenges.

Criticism of Malthus's Population Theory

Modern economists have criticized Malthus's Population Theory as follows:

(a) Groundless Mathematical Formula: According to Malthus, population increases in a geometrical ratio and food supply increases in an arithmetical ratio, and if not controlled, the population of any country doubles in 25 years. However, since there is no example in world history to prove these things, we can call this formula groundless.

(b) One-sided View: According to Malthus, the population of any country depends on its food production. In reality, this view is one-sided and flawed. People in all countries do not depend only on agriculture. They also earn their livelihood from other industries besides agriculture.

(c) Pessimistic Theory: Malthus's Population Theory is pessimistic because it assumes that an increase in population is harmful in all circumstances. However, according to Professor Cannon, a child does not only come with a mouth to feed but also with two hands to work and mental capacity to think about improving production methods.

(d) Based on the Law of Diminishing Returns: Malthus's theory is based on the false assumption that the law of diminishing returns always applies to agriculture. However, as a result of scientific progress in agriculture, the law of increasing returns can also apply due to the use of improved seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc. Thus, this theory is flawed.

(e) Natural Disasters are not Indicators of Overpopulation: According to Malthus, natural disasters, i.e., when earthquakes occur, floods come, famines occur, and diseases like cholera and plague spread, it should be understood that there is overpopulation. However, these natural disasters can occur even when the population is small. Famine and infectious diseases are the result of inefficient production, unequal distribution, and lack of health services, not due to overpopulation.