Nepal Monetary Policy 2082/83: Key Highlights, Interest Rates, Inflation Targets, and Economic Growth Strategy

Published - July 11, 2025

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) has officially revealed its Monetary Policy for fiscal year 2082/083 amid significant public anticipation and economic scrutiny. This important document charts a strategic course intended to fortify Nepal's economic stability, enhance resilience against global economic disruptions, and promote inclusive and sustainable growth.

Strategic Policy Directions

The NRB's monetary policy maintains a flexible stance, prioritizing capital formation in the private sector and improvement in credit quality. Governor Poudel highlighted the enhancement of open market operations as a significant step to stabilize market liquidity.

Key Economic Targets

• GDP Growth: 6.0%

• Inflation Target: Around 5.0%

• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Seven months of import coverage

• Money Supply Growth: 13.0%

• Private Sector Credit Expansion: 12.0%

Banking and Liquidity Management

Liquidity management stands at the forefront of this year's policy. NRB has reduced key monetary rates:

• Policy Rate: Reduced from 5.0% to 4.5%

• Bank Rate: Reduced from 6.5% to 6.0%

• Deposit Collection Rate: Reduced from 3.0% to 2.75%

The Capital Adequacy Framework has been strengthened with Countercyclical Capital Buffers, encouraging banks to direct lending towards productive sectors such as agriculture, SMEs, and green initiatives. Additionally, NRB will maintain existing Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) and plans to issue NRB bonds as necessary to manage liquidity effectively.

Strategic Imperatives and Key Macroeconomic Targets

The NRB's policy outlines ambitious yet pragmatic macroeconomic targets for FY 2082/083:

• GDP Growth: A rstrong 6.0% economic growth rate is projected.

• Inflation Control: Inflation is targeted to be contained around 5.0%.

• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Reserves are aimed to cover at least seven months of merchandise imports, an indicator of external sector stability.

• Monetary Expansion: A moderate 13.0% money supply growth is anticipated.

• Private Sector Credit: A balanced 12.0% expansion in private sector credit is targeted to stimulate economic activity.

Inflation and Price Stability

Inflation remains a critical challenge, and NRB commits to rigorous oversight, targeting a stable inflation rate of approximately 5.0%. Vigilant market monitoring and timely financial interventions will be necessary to managing price volatility, especially for essential commodities.

Share Market Outlook

Investor confidence in the share market remains a key priority. NRB plans significant reforms:

• Digital Finance Innovation Hubs

• Improved regulatory transparency

• Enhanced disclosure standards

• Comprehensive financial literacy programs

These measures aim to curb market volatility and deepen investor participation sustainably.

Loan Management Reforms

NRB has enacted significant reforms in loan management, including tighter loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and stricter margin lending criteria to reduce speculative investments. The policy directs banks to rebalance loan portfolios towards productive sectors, enhancing overall loan quality and recovery rates.

Economic Forecasting and Data Utilization

The NRB underscores the importance of sound economic forecasting, leveraging advanced data analytics and statistical modeling. Improved collaboration with national statistical agencies will enhance the accuracy of economic predictions, directly informing responsive policy adjustments and boosting stakeholder confidence.

Economic Growth and Development

The Monetary Policy targets strong economic growth driven by increased agricultural productivity, industrial expansion, and a vibrant service sector. Specific interventions, including targeted credit lines and agricultural insurance schemes, have been outlined to support vulnerable sectors and shield them from market uncertainties.

Global Economic Context and Response

NRB acknowledges the impact of global economic shifts, especially from key trading partners like India, China, and the United States. Strategic measures have been outlined to maintain exchange rate stability, foreign exchange reserves, and manage external shocks through prudent foreign exchange management policies.

Forecast for Share Market and Banking Professionals

The Monetary Policy's comprehensive approach anticipates enhanced stability and growth opportunities in Nepal's banking sector. Banking professionals can expect a strengthened regulatory environment, clearer guidelines for loan management, and opportunities in sustainable financing sectors. Investors in the share market can anticipate increased market stability due to enhanced transparency, digitization of financial services, and investor protection mechanisms.

Conclusion and Way Forward

Nepal's monetary policy for the fiscal year 2082/083 outlines a clear and ambitious roadmap towards economic revitalisation and inclusive growth. Although external uncertainties persist, NRB's proactive measures promise enhanced economic resilience, investor confidence, and long-lasting national growth.

Summary: Major Highlights from the 59th Monetary Policy Presented by NRB Governor Poudel for FY 2082/83

Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Prof. Dr. Biswo Nath Poudel unveiled the 59th Monetary Policy for Fiscal Year 2082/83 on Friday, outlining reforms aimed at reviving the sluggish economy. The policy was presented via live television and social media, marking Governor Poudel’s first major policy address since assuming office.

The new policy adopts a flexible and accommodative stance, with significant rate cuts and regulatory relaxations for both borrowers and financial institutions.

Among the major highlights, the policy rate was reduced from 5% to 4.5%, while the bank rate and deposit collection rate were also lowered, signaling an intent to make borrowing more affordable and credit more accessible.

Private sector credit is projected to grow by 12%, with the central bank setting a 6% GDP growth target and aiming to cap inflation at 5.5%. The foreign exchange spending limit for Nepali travelers has been raised to USD 3,000 from USD 2,500.

The maximum individual margin loan limit has increased from Rs. 15 crore to Rs. 25 crore, while banks can now lend up to 70% of share prices, based on either the average market value or a 180-day average—whichever is lower.

Housing loan provisions were also relaxed, as first-time home buyers can now borrow up to Rs. 3 crore with a loan-to-value ratio of up to 80%.

Other major changes include a review of microfinance dividend policies, lifting of lending limits for national-level finance companies, and revised caps on non-deliverable forward contracts.

The monetary easing, regulatory reforms, and increased credit flexibility, as noted by Governor Poudel, aim to support economic recovery without compromising financial stability.

Monetary Policy FY 2082/83 – Summary Table

Is It Time to Regulate Cooperatives Like Commercial Banks?

Co-operatives have long stood as pillars of financial inclusion and local empowerment in Nepal, reaching from bustling urban centers to remote mountain villages. With over 30,000 co-operatives serving more than seven million Nepalis, the sector’s potential for social and economic good is immense. However, recent scandals and high-profile collapses have created a negative impact, necessitating a critical reevaluation of these institutions' operations.

The question now confronting policymakers is clear: Should Nepal start regulating co-operatives more like commercial banks? The answer, given the stakes involved, seems to be an unequivocal yes.

Co-operatives at a Crossroads

Historically, co-operatives have thrived on principles of democratic ownership, grassroots participation, and shared prosperity. Following Nepal’s 1992 Cooperative Act, the sector exploded in scale, mobilizing savings of over NPR 600 billion and extending financial services to millions. They have significantly contributed to financial inclusion, rural livelihoods, women's empowerment, and local economic resilience.

Yet beneath these successes, alarming vulnerabilities persist.

Recent scandals, such as the collapses of Kanchan Savings in Kathmandu and Buddhabhumi Co-operative in Rupandehi, highlight deep governance failures and regulatory weaknesses. Thousands of depositors have lost their savings, and public confidence is shaken.

Why Current Regulations Are Insufficient

Unlike commercial banks regulated by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), co-operatives operate under the Department of Co-operatives, which lacks the expertise, resources, and stringent oversight required for large-scale financial institutions. This regulatory dualism exposes significant gaps:

• Weak internal governance, allowing insider abuse and fraud.

• Limited transparency, with many co-operatives avoiding proper audits and disclosures.

• The lack of deposit insurance leaves depositors unprotected.

• The lack of credit information sharing heightens default risks.

These gaps amplify the risks of systemic financial crises.

The Case for Bank-Like Regulation

Nepal’s larger co-operatives increasingly operate like banks, collecting public deposits, issuing loans, and offering financial products. It is logical and fair, therefore, that their regulation mirrors that of commercial banks. Such a step is essential for:

1. Protecting Public Deposits: Ordinary Nepalis, who entrust their savings to co-operatives, deserve the same level of protection provided to bank customers, including deposit insurance.

2. Systemic Stability: Large-scale cooperative failures risk destabilizing the broader financial system, creating social unrest and undermining public confidence.

3. Fair Competition: Leveling the regulatory playing field prevents regulatory arbitrage, ensuring co-operatives and banks compete fairly and transparently.

4. Restoring Public Trust: Enhanced oversight can restore confidence in the sector, helping responsible co-operatives thrive while weeding out fraudulent practices.

Implementing Effective Reforms

To transition toward effective regulation, Nepal could adopt several key measures:

• Tiered Licensing: Larger, deposit-taking co-operatives should require bank-like licenses, subjecting them to rigorous financial standards, while smaller community-based groups can remain under simplified oversight.

• Mandatory Independent Audits and Disclosures: Transparent financial reporting and regular audits by independent entities should be non-negotiable.

• Participation in Credit Information Bureaus: Mandatory reporting of loan data would mitigate risks from multiple loans and fraud.

• Risk-Based Capital Requirements: Minimum capital buffers, tailored to the risk profile of each co-operative, must be enforced.

• Deposit Insurance Scheme: Establishing a protective safety net similar to banks would secure depositor confidence.

• Robust Inspections and Enforcement: Unannounced regulatory inspections, coupled with meaningful penalties for non-compliance, must be institutionalized.

• Fit-and-Proper Criteria: Stringent vetting of co-operative management and boards would enhance governance integrity.

Lessons from International Experience

Globally, countries facing similar crises—Kenya, India, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines—have strengthened their co-operative sectors by introducing bank-like regulations. Nepal should follow these precedents to stabilize its sector.

Conclusion: An Urgent Call to Action

The continued growth of Nepal’s cooperative sector demands a regulatory evolution. The recent scandals are not failures of the co-operative model itself, but symptoms of inadequate oversight. By adopting stringent, bank-like regulations tailored to the risks and scale of modern co-operatives, Nepal can safeguard depositors, restore public confidence, and ensure that co-operatives fulfill their potential as true engines of inclusive development.

This reform is not merely regulatory—it is essential for building a stable, trusted, and sustainable financial future for millions of Nepalis.

Should Nepal Follow India’s Microfinance Model?

The Real Issue Is Sustainability, Not Just Replication

Despite decades of interventions, nearly one in five Nepalis remains trapped in poverty, with remittances providing temporary relief rather than lasting change. As traditional agriculture falters under climate threats, the need for an innovative, homegrown poverty-alleviation strategy becomes urgent.

India’s microfinance sector—characterized by small, collateral-free loans and financial services targeted at low-income groups—has been widely credited with empowering women, spurring rural entrepreneurship, and dramatically expanding financial inclusion. But should Nepal replicate this model?

The success stories are compelling, but the cautionary tales equally vital.

Microfinance: India’s Proven Yet Imperfect Model

India’s microfinance system relies heavily on three pillars: Self-Help Groups (SHGs), specialized Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), and bank linkage schemes. Collectively, these have brought 60 million borrowers, predominantly women, into formal financial networks. The SHG movement, in particular, has delivered impressive results, fostering financial inclusion, women’s empowerment, and rural entrepreneurship. Millions of Indian women have started small businesses, invested in education, and found a stronger voice at home and within their communities.

Yet, India’s experience also offers stark warnings. The 2010 Andhra Pradesh microfinance crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities—over-indebtedness, aggressive lending, high-interest rates, and exploitation. Commercialization further intensified concerns, shifting the focus from poverty alleviation to profit maximization. These challenges underline that microfinance, while powerful, is not foolproof.

Nepal’s Own Microfinance Landscape

Nepal’s microfinance industry, inspired by Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank and India’s SHG model, has seen substantial growth since the 1990s. Over four million Nepalis, mostly women, now access microfinance services through more than 80 dedicated institutions. The sector has empowered disadvantaged communities and created meaningful economic opportunities.

Yet, Nepal faces similar risks as India: reports of over-indebted borrowers, high-interest burdens, governance scandals in cooperatives, and uneven regional outreach.

Learning from India—What to Adopt and Avoid

Nepal and India share common contexts—rural poverty, agricultural dependence, social exclusion, and migration reliance. There are lessons worth replicating:

1. SHG Expansion: Nepal could scale SHG-style initiatives, emphasizing women-led collectives for broader socio-economic benefits.

2. Integration with State Initiatives: Linking microfinance closely with government programs on livelihood, skill training, and social protection would enhance impact.

3. Digitization and Fintech: India’s digital finance innovations could help Nepal achieve faster, cheaper, and wider financial inclusion.

However, Nepal must avoid India’s missteps:

• Stronger Regulatory Oversight: Nepal Rastra Bank should prioritize consumer protection, responsible lending, and prevent overlapping indebtedness.

• Transparency in Lending: Interest rate caps and transparent pricing must safeguard vulnerable borrowers.

• Diversifying Financial Products: Beyond loans, savings, insurance, and financial literacy should form core offerings to genuinely support poverty reduction.

Tailoring a Nepali Microfinance Model

Nepal cannot afford a blind replication of India’s system. Instead, it needs a carefully tailored approach emphasizing sustainable livelihoods over mere credit access. Borrower education, comprehensive impact assessments, and strengthening governance within cooperatives must be foundational.

The evidence globally and regionally underscores that microfinance alone is insufficient. The impacts are significant but modest. Integrating financial services with agriculture, markets, training, and social development programs is vital. Only then can microfinance genuinely become an empowering tool rather than a debt trap.

Conclusion: An Opportunity with Vigilance

India’s microfinance experience presents Nepal with valuable insights and clear warnings. The path forward should be a thoughtful, strategic adaptation rather than replication. Ultimately, sustainable poverty reduction demands a holistic approach, where financial inclusion complements broader economic and social development. Nepal must cautiously seize this opportunity, ensuring that the road out of poverty is characterised by empowerment, dignity, and resilience.

Loan Loss Provisions: Are Nepali Banks Playing it Too Safe or Too Risky?

The critical role of Loan Loss Provisions (LLPs) in safeguarding Nepal's financial architecture has come under intense scrutiny recently. Following the tremors of a global economic crisis, the lingering aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a notable surge in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) across the banking and financial sector, a profound debate has emerged. 

Are Nepali banks clinging to an overly cautious 'safe' policy, or are they, perhaps inadvertently, drifting into a more 'risky' operational mode? A deeper, more incisive analysis of this pivotal issue is not just warranted but essential for the nation’s economic stability.

The Regulatory Framework: A Foundation for Stability

The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), as the central banking authority, has long anchored the financial system through its Unified Directive, meticulously outlining loan classifications and mandating minimum provision rates for all commercial banks. This regulatory bedrock ensures that financial institutions allocate a portion of their earnings to cover potential loan defaults, acting as a crucial buffer against economic downturns.

A significant shift is currently underway with the phased implementation of the Nepal Financial Reporting Standard 9 (NFRS-9). This new standard introduces the "Expected Credit Loss" (ECL) model, a forward-looking approach that fundamentally changes how banks assess and provision for risks. Unlike previous methods that often relied on historical loss data, ECL compels banks to anticipate and set aside provisions for future potential credit risks, demanding a more proactive and predictive risk management framework.

Currently, the prescribed provision rates illustrate a tiered approach to risk management:

• Pass Loan (Standard Loan): 1–1.3%

• Watchlist Loan: 5%

• Substandard: 25%

• Doubtful: 50%

• Loss Loan (more than 12 months overdue): 100%

The advent of NFRS-9 further accentuates this, requiring not only a strong categorization of existing loans but also a meticulous incorporation of prospective risks into the provisioning calculations. This move is designed to ensure banks are adequately capitalized to absorb potential shocks before they materialize into full-blown crises.

Recent Trends: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Nepal's banking sector has, in recent years, navigated a turbulent environment marked by a persistent liquidity crunch, a noticeable slowdown in credit growth, and increasingly arduous challenges in loan recovery. These headwinds have predictably manifested in the banks' asset quality.

Latest data for the third quarter of 2024 (FY 2080/81) paints a revealing picture: the average NPL rate across commercial banks has climbed to 4.83%, a discernible rise from 3.65% in the preceding fiscal year. This upward trajectory is particularly pronounced in some institutions; for instance, Himalayan Bank's NPL rate has reached 7.68%, and Kumari Bank's stands at 6.98%. These figures are more than mere statistics; they are critical indicators of mounting stress within the loan portfolio.

Paradoxically, during this period of escalating NPLs, banks collectively set aside NPR 35.07 billion in provisions – approximately NPR 4.8 billion less than the previous year. This discrepancy raises a crucial question: What does this signal for the health of the banking sector? It strongly suggests that while the challenge of recovering loans has intensified, banks appear to be prioritizing profit balance by strategically reducing their provisions. This tactical maneuver, while potentially boosting short-term profitability, carries inherent long-term risks.

The Dilemma: 'Overly Safe' or 'Risky'?

The current state of loan loss provisioning in Nepal presents a fascinating paradox, oscillating between what appears to be excessive caution and an increasingly bold appetite for risk.

The 'Overly Safe' Stance: Over-provisioning

Historically, Nepali banks have often leaned towards over-provisioning, setting aside more capital than strictly necessary to cover loan losses. This conservative approach, particularly noticeable during periods of instability such as the aftermath of the pandemic, saw banks earmarking substantial provisions even for 'Pass' and 'Watchlist' category loans.

The rationale behind this strategy is straightforward: while it admittedly reduces a bank's immediate dividend distribution capacity, it simultaneously fortifies its capital structure, providing a strong safety net against unforeseen financial shocks. The ongoing implementation of NFRS-9, with its emphasis on future risk estimation, could further entrench this conservative tendency, potentially leading to even greater provisions being set aside for anticipated credit losses.

The 'Risky' Aspect: Under-provisioning Trends

However, a contrasting and arguably more concerning trend has emerged. Faced with the recent slowdown in credit demand and mounting pressure on capital, some banks appear to have adopted a strategy of cutting back on provisions to enhance short-term gains. This 'leaner' provisioning approach is primarily driven by the desire to boost immediate profitability and satisfy shareholder expectations in a competitive market.

This strategy, while seemingly beneficial in the short run, carries significant systemic risks. Despite the persistently high NPL levels, a reduction in provision amounts means that banks might be under-reserved for potential future defaults. If NPLs continue their upward trajectory, the currently allocated provisions may prove insufficient to absorb the losses, potentially eroding the bank's capital base and triggering broader financial instability. While the Nepal Rastra Bank diligently monitors banks' Capital Adequacy Ratios, a sustained increase in NPLs without commensurate provisioning poses a palpable threat of escalating systemic risk across the entire financial system.

Banking's Core Conflict: Profit vs. Prudence

The direct impact of loan loss provisions on a bank's profitability is undeniable, creating an inherent tension between short-term financial gains and long-term stability.

• Higher provisions act as a drag on immediate profits, as more capital is held back. However, this prudence significantly enhances the bank's resilience and stability over the long haul.

• Conversely, lower provisions inflate immediate profits, which can be appealing to investors seeking higher returns. Yet, this short-sighted approach can fundamentally jeopardize the bank's long-term financial health, leaving it vulnerable to credit shocks.

Nepal's banking sector is characterized by fierce competition, where profitability often serves as the primary metric for bank valuation in the stock market. This creates a powerful incentive for banks to pursue a 'lower provision – higher profit' model. While this strategy might deliver ephemeral gains and appease investors in the immediate term, it ultimately introduces considerable systemic risk into the broader financial system, potentially undermining overall economic stability.

Regulatory Challenges and the Path Forward

The Nepal Rastra Bank's recent directive to implement the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) system is a pivotal step. This system compels banks to undertake a far more rigorous and comprehensive analysis of their loan portfolios, taking into account loan quality, the dynamics of credit flow, and specific industry-related risks to accurately estimate potential losses. This shift demands a higher level of analytical sophistication and data management from financial institutions.

It is noteworthy that international regulatory bodies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, have also voiced their concerns regarding the rising NPLs and the evolving provisioning policies within Nepal's banking system. This external scrutiny underscores the urgency for Nepali banks to decisively prioritize long-term stability and strong risk management over mere short-term profit maximization.

Strategic Solutions and Recommendations

To navigate this complex landscape and ensure the enduring health of Nepal’s financial system, a multi-pronged approach is essential:

1. Full and Effective Implementation of NFRS-9

Banks must commit to the complete and effective implementation of NFRS-9. This means moving beyond mere compliance to genuinely integrating proactive risk assessment into their core operations, meticulously evaluating loan quality, inherent business risks, and prevailing market conditions to anticipate and provide for potential future losses.

2. Proactive and Stringent Regulatory Oversight

The Nepal Rastra Bank's role as a vigilant guardian cannot be overstated. It must rigorously monitor banks' capital adequacy, refine their risk management frameworks, and scrutinize provisioning trends to ensure they are aligned with actual risk exposures. This proactive oversight is critical to prevent the build-up of unaddressed systemic vulnerabilities.

3. Enhanced Transparency and Information Dissemination

Greater transparency is paramount. Banks should transparently disclose comprehensive details regarding their NPLs, the methodologies underpinning their provisioning, and precise data on loan distribution and recovery efforts. Providing timely and accessible information to investors, regulatory bodies, and the general public will not only foster greater trust but also enable more informed decision-making across the market.

4. Cultivating a Balanced Provisioning Strategy

The ultimate goal should be a balanced and risk-appropriate provisioning policy – avoiding both excessive 'over-provisioning' that unduly constrains growth and reckless 'under-provisioning' that imperils stability. The delicate equilibrium between strengthening the capital structure and minimizing economic risk must be diligently maintained to ensure the resilience of the financial sector.

Conclusion

Currently, Nepali banks are grappling with the inherent tension between financial'safety' and operational 'risk'. While NPL levels continue their upward trend, the discernible effort to balance profits by curtailing provisions presents a short-term solution with potential long-term repercussions. If Nepal aims for sustained financial stability, its banks must unequivocally pivot towards balanced risk provisioning.

The effective implementation of NFRS-9, coupled with the Nepal Rastra Bank's rigorous monitoring and an ongoing dedication to transparency from all financial institutions, will collectively forge a banking system that is not only healthy and reliable but also resilient and largely immune to undue risks. Ultimately, a profound and continuous improvement in banks' loan loss provision policies is imperative to lay a strong foundation for enduring financial stability and broader economic prosperity, transcending the allure of fleeting short-term profits.

Current Situation of Remittance in Nepal

Published: July 9, 2025

Nepal’s remittance sector has set a new benchmark, hitting nearly NPR 176.32 billion in just one month (Jestha 2082), as per the latest report published by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) on Tuesday. This record inflow reflects the continued outmigration of youth seeking employment abroad due to limited job opportunities at home, which in turn has strengthened the country's external economic indicators.

Remittance Hits Historic High in 11 Months

During the first eleven months of the current fiscal year 2081/82 (from Shrawan to Jestha), remittance inflows reached an unprecedented NPR 1 trillion 532.93 billion (NPR 1,53,293 crore), the highest in Nepal's history. Compared to the same period last year, this marks a 15.5% growth in remittance.

• In Jestha 2082 alone, remittance stood at NPR 176.32 billion, compared to NPR 128.91 billion in Jestha 2081.

• In US dollar terms, remittance increased by 12.7%, reaching USD 11.25 billion.

The surge in remittance has contributed to a surplus in the current account and a significant boost in the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while also helping to curb inflation.

Foreign Exchange Reserves and Labor Migration

Foreign exchange reserves rose by 25.9%, reaching NPR 2 trillion 569.38 billion (NPR 2,56,938 crore). In US dollars, reserves increased by 22.2% to USD 18.65 billion by the end of Jestha. These reserves are sufficient to cover 17.6 months of goods imports and 14.7 months of goods and services imports.

From Shrawan to Jestha, a total of 452,324 Nepalis received final labor approvals (institutional and individual – new), and 308,067 obtained renewal labor approvals. The ongoing trend of labor migration continues to underpin the robust growth in remittance inflows.

Current Account and Foreign Investment

• Current account: The current account was in surplus by NPR 307.31 billion, up from NPR 20.38 billion in the same period last year. In US dollars, the surplus reached USD 2.26 billion.

• Net capital transfer: Net capital transfer was NPR 8.96 billion, compared to NPR 5.46 billion last year.

• Direct Foreign Investment: Direct foreign equity investment (only equity) during the review period amounted to NPR 11.09 billion, up from NPR 8.24 billion a year ago.

• Balance of Payments: The balance of payments recorded a surplus of NPR 491.44 billion, compared to NPR 425.67 billion last year.

Private Sector Credit and Investment

Bank and financial institutions increased lending to the private sector by NPR 407.62 billion in the past eleven months, an 8% rise from last year. In annual point terms, private sector lending grew by 8.7% by the end of Jestha 2082. Of this, 63% of credit flowed to non-financial institutional sectors, while 37% went to individuals and households.

• Commercial Banks: 8.4% growth in credit flow

• Development Banks: 4.7% increase

• Finance Companies: 6.9% growth

Within private sector lending, 14.5% was for working capital (agricultural and non-agricultural products), while 65% was secured by real estate mortgages.

By sector:

• Industrial production: +8.2%

• Construction: +12.9%

• Wholesale and retail trade: +5.2%

• Transport, communication, and public service: +13.5%

• Service industries: +8.8%

• Consumption sector: +10.9%

Inflation Continues to Fall

NRB’s report indicates that inflation has sharply decreased. By the end of Jestha, annual point-to-point consumer inflation was 2.72%, compared to 4.17% in the same period last year.

• Food & Beverage Group: 0.54% inflation (down from 5.85% last year)

• Non-Food & Service Group: 3.94% (up from 3.09%)

Sub-groups:

• Ghee & Oil: +10.06%

• Non-alcoholic drinks: +5.13%

• Fruits: +3.51%

• Pulses & Legumes: +2.85%

• Vegetables: +7.04%

• Spices: +3.06%

• Fish & Meat: +2.91%

Non-food, non-service:

• Miscellaneous goods/services: +9.43%

• Clothing/footwear: +6.82%

• Education: +5.88%

• Furnishings/household equipment: +5.06%

• Tobacco: +4.68%

Price increases were higher in rural areas (2.90%) compared to urban areas (2.66%). By region, annual point-to-point inflation was 2.72% in Kathmandu Valley, 2.58% in the Terai, 2.48% in the hills, and 4.18% in the Himalayas.

Conclusion

Remittance continues to be a lifeline for Nepal’s economy, driving record foreign currency inflows and contributing to economic stability. Despite the opportunities created by this inflow, the underlying cause—a lack of domestic employment—remains a critical concern for policymakers as the outflow of young labor persists. With inflation under control and foreign exchange reserves at healthy levels, the latest data paints a positive picture for Nepal’s economic resilience amid ongoing global challenges.